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Abstract:
The appraisal of ground mounted photovoltaic systems is an important question, due to increasing investments in renewable energies. The costs related to installation and maintenance, and the economic benefits related to the energy saving, suggests the use of an income approach, in order to consider the financial aspects of the photovoltaic systems. This paper proposes the use of the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA). The DCFA allows to simulate the entire life cycle of the photovoltaic system, from the acquisition date to the end of its life cycle, to evaluate the most probable market value by discounting the annual cash flows generated by the system. In particular, the paper proposes a procedure to determine the discount rate in an innovative manner through the combination of a conventional financial method (the Build up Approach) and the analytical method which makes recourse to the use of the ascending and descending influences that act, each with positive or negative sign, on the specific risk factors related to the photovoltaic investment. To obtain an objective appraisal of the discount rate, the theory of the ascending and descending influences has been applied in this specific case for the calculation of the risk premium. The percentage incidences of the ascending and descending influences, which influence the formation of the risks to which they refer, are determined through this study for all the intrinsic factors, which are part of the photovoltaic investment risks.